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We Did The Math DIV Can Go To $18

By Dividend Channel Staff, Tuesday, October 10, 7:09 AM ET
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Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the SuperDividend U.S. ETF (NYSE:DIV), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $18.38 per unit.

With DIV trading at a recent price near $15.92 per unit, that means that analysts see 15.44% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of DIV's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (NYSE:IVR), Northwest Natural Holding Co (NYSE:NWN), and Summit Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SMLP). Although IVR has traded at a recent price of $8.67/share, the average analyst target is 26.87% higher at $11.00/share. Similarly, NWN has 22.89% upside from the recent share price of $39.06 if the average analyst target price of $48.00/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting SMLP to reach a target price of $22.50/share, which is 17.07% above the recent price of $19.22. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of IVR, NWN, and SMLP:

IVR, NWN, and SMLP Relative Performance Chart

Combined, IVR, NWN, and SMLP represent 8.02% of the SuperDividend U.S. ETF. Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
SuperDividend U.S. ETF DIV $15.92 $18.38 15.44%
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc IVR $8.67 $11.00 26.87%
Northwest Natural Holding Co NWN $39.06 $48.00 22.89%
Summit Midstream Partners LP SMLP $19.22 $22.50 17.07%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

The average analyst target price data upon which this article was based, is courtesy of data provided by Zacks Investment Research via Quandl.com.
Get the latest Zacks research report on IVR — FREE
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This Article's Word Cloud:   Analyst   Below   Capital   ETFs   FREEGet   Holding   Invesco   Midstream   Mortgage   NYSE   Natural   Northwest   Partners   SMLP   Summit   SuperDividend   Target   Upside   With   Zacks   about   above   analyst   analysts   average   background   based   border   bottom   color   data   font   from   have   hctblstyle   holdings   implied   latest   mdash   price   recent   report   research   share   target   targets   that   trading   underlying   upside

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